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Forecasting:

19 Aug

Over the next five years we forecast that aggregate E&M global spending will rise to $1.9 trillion in 2015, a 5.7% compound annual advance driven by economic growth, but masking the accelerating shift of spending from traditional to digital platforms.

  • Currently digital accounts for 26% of all spending but by 2015 we expect digital’s share to rise to 33.9%.
  • Advertising, the most cyclically sensitive of the three E&M spending streams, recorded the largest year-on-year swing, rebounding at 5.8% in 2010 from an 11% slump in 2009. Overall global advertising will increase at a 5.5% compound annual rate to $578 billion in 2015.
  • In contrast Internet access spending was barely affected by the economic cycle and is expected to rise to $408 billion in 2015, an 8.6% compound annual increase.
  • Video-on-demand spending will pass pay-per-view in 2011 and reach $4.7 billion in 2015, a 9.8 percent compound annual increase from $2.9 billion in 2010.
  • Mobile advertising spending in EMEA in 2015 is predicted to grow at 33.2% CAGR, to $2 billion, putting EMEA on a par with North America, but behind Asia Pacific which will still lead with $4.5 billion.
  • Recorded music is the only segment where consumer/end-user spending will be lower in 2015 than in 2010, declining at 1.1% CAGR to $22 billion. Global recorded music revenues are not expected to show growth again until 2014, the year when spending on digital music will overtake physical spending.
  • Newspaper publishing revenues will continue to see strong growth in some countries. For example, Asia Pacific’s fastest-growing newspaper markets will be Indonesia, at a CAGR of 9.9 percent, and India, at 9.4 percent compounded annually.
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Posted by on August 19, 2011 in Finance

 

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